self defense

Look! Data!

/ hsoi

I saw this graphic floating around the Int3rw3bs the past few days:

I didn’t have time to look further into it to know if there was anything actually sound behind that data or was just someone with access to Photoshop and an agenda.

Turns out someone actually did the math.

The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.3

The average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by a civilian is 2.3.

That’s pretty telling on many levels. And you should go read the article backing up the statistic because it appears he did his best to take a proper sample. I admit I don’t have the time to replicate his study, so I’m just trusting the guy.

The big take-home is you cannot rely upon the police to protect you. All LEO’s I personally know do believe in “to protect and serve”, but none of them (or any of Austin PD or Travis Co. Sheriff or Texas State Troopers) are here right now to protect or serve me. I’ve seen APD response time at best to be about 5 minutes, and while that’s awesome response time, 5 minutes is a VERY long time when bad things are happening to you.

But who is here right now that can do something about it? You are.

Look at the recent story of Samuel Williams, the 71-year old man that drew his concealed handgun when two thugs came to rob an Internet cafe. Where were the police? Who was the first responder? Samuel Williams.

How about Kelvedon Hatch, the convenience store in Essex that foiled a robbery attempt of his store by throwing cases of beer at the robber? There were no police, and there was no successful robbery either.

This isn’t so much about guns as it is about accepting that putting the responsibility for  your own safety into someone else’s hands may be acceptable in some particular circumstances, but ultimately only you can and must be responsible for your safety. When people are willing to be thusly responsible, look at how much better things turn out? Sure, bad things start to happen, but they get cut off before they can become horrible events. When good people are legally crippled, when good people don’t do anything for themselves or their fellow man, look how bad things can become.

In the end, the tool may enable and enhance a person’s ability to perform work, but it’s still ultimately about the person. None of us want to see tragic events happen, but we must consider careful what roads will help us minimize the chances of these events happening, and when they do happen, minimizing the damage done. Knee-jerk reactions based upon fear and emotion are not sound ways to make policy. Look at facts, look at data. Truth always comes out, and we suffer less the sooner we accept it.

 

Run, Hide Fight

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

Produced by the City of Houston with funds from the DHS, a video entitled “Run, Hide, Fight”. The purpose of this video is to help the public learn how to deal with an active shooter situation.

Watch it now. It’s not long, and it’s a good video.

The main failing most people have is they do not have a plan. Something bad happens, they don’t know what to do, they freeze, they panic, they risk being harmed. This video gives you a plan: run, hide, fight. It’s a simple plan, easy to remember. Run. Hide. Fight. It doesn’t put too many specific details in place because every situation will be different, but this is a solid general plan. Run. Hide. Fight.

It is a proper ordering of what to do. Your first priority should be to get out of there. If you cannot, hiding is the best option; may seem obvious, but if you lack a plan and freeze from fear, you will sit out in the open. And I appreciate they promote the option of fighting. For far too long in this country the notion of fighting was looked down upon, and all that leads to is victims. I think this is proper ordering because the goal is to survive the event, and these give you your best chance of survival. Run. Hide. Fight.

I thought the production quality was good. They avoided politics. They focused on the message, providing elaboration but focusing on the mantra. The visuals reinforced the message. There’s no emotion or fear involved in the presentation, just a straight presentation. While a subject matter most wouldn’t want to deal with, it’s a video able to be shown to all. In fact, it’s the sort of video the HR department would want to show to everyone.

A few specific observations:

  • When the people were running up stairs, that confused me. “Why are they running up to the roof, instead of down to the street?!?” It appeared they were just trapping themselves. It appears that’s just how that building was, maybe these people were in the basement, because it did show them exiting the building on the street. But it was a little confusing and I know I’m not the only one that observed this and thought as such. Going “down” is just more your (stereo)typical “exiting the building” direction.
  • Running wound up next to the building, huddled by the dumpster. Why? Why are you not trying to get further away from the building? Maybe a production artifact, but I sure wouldn’t stick around… I’d get far far away.

Did you notice the subtle thing they did around 0:56 to 1:00 in the video? Go back and watch that portion.

What you see is the man walking in the door. Written on the door is something called a “30.06 sign”, named after the section of the Texas Penal Code, “TRESPASS BY HOLDER OF LICENSE TO CARRY CONCEALED HANDGUN“. Basically, posting that sign gives legal force to prohibit law-abiding citizens carrying concealed handguns from entering that premesis.

Did you notice the person bent on inflicting harm and evil was not stopped by this sign? Granted, the sign only applies to folks legally carrying a concealed handgun, and obviously this man was neither legally carrying nor carrying a handgun. But regardless, laws and signs did not stop him from inflicting his evil upon the innocent. One could also say this is what prevented the innocents from fighting back with little more than a fire extinguisher and a chair. I’m not sure why the producers of the video opted to include this subtle tidbit, because they certainly did not have to use a building with a 30.06 sign, they didn’t have to include a shot of the door in the video… but they did.

Overall I find this video to be a quality product with a worthwhile message. Run. Hide. Fight.

Train to a higher standard

/ hsoi

There was a discussion on the Insights Training Center mailing list where someone posed a “what would you do in this scenario?” type of question. John Holschen posted some response, and this snippet in particular stood out to me:

If your question was really about the physiology of a hypothetical “hostage shot” that you have no choice but to take…
1. Anything other than a bullet in the brain or upper spine is unlikely to produce instant physiological incapacitation.
2. Not all bullets in the brain or spine will produce instant physiological incapacitation (especially from a handgun.) I.E. There are no guaranties.
On an additional note: I expect that most people in this situation would wish they were more competent in their firearms skills than they currently are (i.e. could more reliably deliver bullets to a smaller target area.)

It’s the last part that stands out.

It probably stands out to me because of this past Saturday’s Skill Builder class. We’re trying to get people to shoot to a higher standard. That B-27 target creates a horrible standard. Not just because it’s anatomically wrong, but on the TX CHL test if you get a hit within the 8 ring or higher, that’s a “good hit” earning the maximum 5 points. That 8 ring is HUGE. If you can only keep your shots within that 8 ring, you’re not doing too good. The reason is, under pressure your skills will degrade. If you can keep things in a 6″ circle even under the artificial pressure of class or competition, then when the flag flies you’ll be able to keep them i that 8-ring. If you can only keep them in that 12″ area when there’s no or very little pressure, when the flag flies you’re going to be making unacceptable hits.

I recently saw some pictures of some students that passed their TX CHL test, and the targets looked like they had been peppered by a shotgun blast (and one had a textbook case of trigger slapping/yanking). I am happy to see these folks seeking their CHL, and I hope they will seek further training to improve their skills.

In the Skill Builder, we shot at a 3″ dot and worked on groups in that 3″ dot. Then we worked to stay within the “-0″ ring of an IDPA target (8” circle) against the timer. Finally, we moved to the KRT-1 target, which has some rather small targets. The class ended with shooting the “3 Seconds or Less” drill on the A/B zones of the KRT-1, which is tougher than usual because the A/B zones on the KRT-1 are smaller than the corresponding zones on IDPA or IPSC targets.

Can you do this?

Can you do this on demand? Repeatedly?

Can you do this cold? because when you get attacked, you won’t have a chance to warm up.

You must understand that when the flag flies your skill and ability will degrade. Karl likes to bring up something Paul Ford said. Paul is ex-Austin PD and SWAT, been in a few gunfights, and Paul said something to the effect that in a gunfight you will do about 75% of your worst day at the range. So get that. It’s not your best day, it’s your worst day… and then you’ll do even worse than that. Think about your most recent bad day at the range when you just couldn’t hit shit, you just couldn’t perform. And now think about that being worse…. is that how you want to perform when your life or the life of someone you love is at stake? Or maybe you should do what it takes to ensure your worst day is at least better than most people’s best day. So that if you found yourself in that hypothetical situation that John Holschen spoke of, that you’ll have the confidence and knowledge that you can and will perform, instead of wishing you had trained harder.

On small guns

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

Too many people who carry a gun for personal protection choose to carry a small gun.

Why?

I reckon because they’re more concerned with daily comfort. I get a lot of fellow Texans going on about the summer heat, and how in the summer they’ll carry some tiny gun in their pocket because anything else is too hot or uncomfortable or hard to wear and conceal in summer clothing.

If that’s your choice, it is. But I myself and many others I know strap on a full-sized gun every day no problem, even in the Texas heat, and we don’t have to wear a trenchcoat to do it.

I was reading an interview with Tom Givens. I just adore Tom because he’s got so much knowledge, and is able to say everything so dead on. He’s one of the most credible sources in this area, given his personal background and that he’s had about 60 students involved in self-defense shootings. We know what he teaches works. We know he speaks from truly knowledge, not Internet Toughguy or “been around guns all my life” bravado.

I think the place where most people who carry a micro gun screw up is that they think the primary purpose of my pistol is to be comfortable and concealed. No, the primary purpose of your pistol is to fight for your life in a sudden, unforeseen crisis. So, when that crisis presents itself, that little, bitty gun is hard to grab in a hurry, it is hard to handle correctly, it’s hard to hit anything with, it doesn’t hold many bullets, and when you hit somebody with it, it doesn’t hurt much. It’s not the optimum thing to fight with. If a fight starts, I want the biggest gun I can get with the most bullets I can get in it and the biggest bullets I can stuff in it.

As an experiment, I tried carrying the M&P Shield for a while, but I gave up on it. I do believe that gun fits particular circumstances, and if it’s the biggest gun you can get then so be it. But if you can get bigger, why shouldn’t you? Tom continues:

But think about that, if you reach for a pistol only because there is a deadly threat to you or somebody you love, you better have a pistol you can fix it with. I’ve interviewed an awful lot of people after gun fights and I’ve never had anybody say to me, “You know, when the bullets started coming back this way, I wished I had a smaller, less powerful pistol with less ammo in it.”

So Caleb asks if you’re underpowered with a wheelgun:

…and as I sit here typing this am carrying a Kahr PM9. All of those guns are not my first choice, but they’re guns and that’s something.

If it’s not your first choice, then why did you choose it? Granted, circumstances may dictate, e.g. a need for very deep concealment. These things happen. But if you have the choice, why would you intentionally cripple yourself? Tom’s thoughts:

I think carrying a small, inadequate pistol may be better than nothing, but I’m not really sure about that. You might be better to just take off running instead of shooting somebody with a thoroughly inadequate gun.

In the end, it’s your life and your choice as to how you wish to value it. And yes, I’m with Tom on this one because well… a good way to help you on the road to success is to see what other successful people do and emulate them. You may not reach the same level of success as they do, or you may exceed it. But no matter exactly where you end up, your chances of succeeding due to following success tends to be greater than if you take some other path.

I’ll leave you with these words from Mr. Givens:

One of the things we do in training is reintroduce the reality of why we carry a gun, and to put a sense of urgency into it. Maybe you’ll never need it, but if you do need it, you are going to need it horribly and maybe it is going to be your life at stake.

I saw a tagline the other day on an Internet forum that I thought was just incredibly bright. It said, “It’s not the odds. It’s the stakes.” And boy, there’s a lot of wisdom in that statement.

We don’t carry the gun because of the odds we’re going to need it today. We carry it because the stakes are our own life or the life of a loved one. That is what we are literally betting. So if you go out unarmed or you go out inadequately armed, you are betting your life, you are betting your children’s lives, you are betting your spouse’s life. I am not willing to bet the lives of the people I love on some tiny, little pocket rocket.

City of Austin crime data

/ hsoi / 5 Comments

I was reading an article interviewing Tom Givens, and Tom is a data man. He doesn’t teach what he teaches because of something he read on the Internet or because he wants to be a tough guy. No, Tom likes looking at hard facts and evidence. Granted, Tom lives in Memphis, TN, one of the most crime-infested cities in America. In the interview Tom said:

All you have to do is go to the Bureau of Justice Statistics or the Uniform Crime Reporting system and look to see what actually happens. Look at the crime tallies for your own area, break it down by population and see what the actual threat level is.

In my city, you have about a one in eighty chance of being the victim of an aggravated assault this year alone. There are 7,500 of those, a couple thousand rapes, and five or six thousand armed robberies, so when you break it all down, you have a one in twenty chance of being involved in a violent crime this year in my city; about one in fifty in the country as a whole.

So I wondered… what about Austin?

Let’s look at a few things.

I looked at the FBI 2010 Uniform Crime Report. I looked for Austin. Note that as of this writing, 2010 was the latest data; 2011 data was starting to be reported but didn’t yet have the Austin breakdown. It reports Austin with a population of 796,310 and lists “violent crime” (murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault)  at 3,790. That’s about 0.48%, or about 1 in 210. Property crime (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, arson) is 45,826, or 5.75% or about 1 in 17. Austin may not be as violent as Memphis, but it’s sure not crime free.

Here’s another Austin crime data analysis I found, that looks at the 2009 data and projects 2012 data. I’m not sure how they’re making their projections, but they are projecting an increase. Now, I’m not totally sure about this because they looked at 2009 data and skipped over 2010, which I briefly looked at above and by comparison, violent crime went down in 2010 (2009 – 4,024 reported incidents, 2010 – 3,790), and property crime too (2009 – 48,026, 2010 – 45,826); population was lower in 2009 (768,970 in 2009, 796,310 in 2010). So is the trend really upwards? Hard to say based on 2 years of data. But, they did have some relative numbers too:

The city violent crime rate for Austin in 2009 was higher than the national violent crime rate average by 21.86% and the city property crime rate in Austin was higher than the national property crime rate average by 106.12%.

In 2009 the city violent crime rate in Austin was higher than the violent crime rate in Texas by 6.59% and the city property crime rate in Austin was higher than the property crime rate in Texas by 55.84%.

So according to their data gathering, Austin is higher than both the national average and state average in both violent crime and property crime. I must admit, seeing the property crime numbers surprised me. I knew property crime was a problem, but didn’t realize how it compared.

And again remember, this is only reported crime. Lots of crime happens that goes unreported. Furthermore, I reckon this is only looking at Austin proper, and likely leaves out areas that we like to consider Austin but aren’t, like Westlake or Rollingwood, Lakeway, and even “greater Austin area” like Buda, Cedar Park, Round Rock, Dripping Springs, Bastrop, etc..

I looked at the Trulia crime map for Austin. It only listed data “from 6/7 to 6/14”. I wish there was a way to list more data, say all of 2012 so far, but if there is a way I couldn’t find it. Just looking at that one week of data, I saw a few interesting things:

  • Crime trends by day was pretty steady. 6/14 had a big dropoff and I’m not sure if that was because it was Thursday or maybe they didn’t have full data for the 14th? But every other day was pretty steady.
  • Crime trends by hour? Most happened in daylight, tho certainly into the early night as well. It seemed from about 10 AM through midnight, with peaking in the afternoon (3 to 6 PM). 4-6 AM seemed to be rather unpopular.
  • Crime was most prevalent downtown and in the University area. Neither are too surprising. East Austin wasn’t as crime-riddled as stereotypes would suggest, tho 78741 around Riverside/Oltorf/South Pleasant Valley was pretty heavy. More crime in north Austin than south Austin.
  • When you look at individual crimes, one thing to observe is the scattershot pattern — it’s all over the map. Basically, there’s no “safe place” in Austin. Crime can and will happen anywhere and everywhere. Yes some areas may be more prone, but no where is immune.
  • Robbery’s tend to happen in the afternoon.
  • Assault happens any time, but seems to be moreso at lunch, dinner, and generally in the evening. Alcohol involvement perhaps?
  • Burglary hourly trend was not a surprise to me: strong during the day, from about 10 AM to about 3-4 PM. Again, this is because most people aren’t home during the day, so that’s the prime time to strike.
  • Theft runs an hourly pattern similar to burglary, tho runs a bit longer into the night.

I bet I could spend a lot of time in krimelabb and find more interesting data. And City of Austin has their CrimeViewer, but it’s too limited for what I’m trying to do. Both are good resources, but neither gives me just a flat out list of data.

Take this data for what it is. And I caution against using this data as a way to “fine-tune” your behavior, like to think that walking around outside at 5 AM means you don’t need to carry your gun. Austin may not be the most dangerous city to live in, but it’s certainly got danger. Shit happens, folks. It’s up to you how you want to handle things when the flag flies.

What are the chances I’ll need a gun?

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

Here goes that Tom Givens character again, citing facts and drawing logical conclusions.

In reply to the following statement: ‘The statistical likelihood of a defensive gun use, shots fired or not, is small compared to the likelihood of an injury [from a] car wreck’, he said:

“I would disagree with this. According to the US Census Bureau, in 2009 there were 2,250,808 motor vehicle accident related deaths and/or injuries. According to the same source, in 2009 there were 2,621,100 murders, rapes, armed robberies and aggravated assaults. Every one of those violent crimes was a potential DGU, IF the victim simply had enough sense to be armed.

This rant … is directed at the people I constantly hear telling me that ‘the odds of needing my gun are one in a million.’ They are not.

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics victimization survey, the violent crimes reported to police don’t even come close to the true number. For 2007, the BJS estimates there were over 5.6 million violent crimes (murder, rape, armed robbery, aggravated assault). That is one for every 54 people in the country. Again, every one of those would be a legitimate cause for a DGU, if the victim were armed.”

From Claude Werner’s Facebook page.

 

Tony Blauer on Street Survival

/ hsoi

Tony Blauer has written his 10 Commandments of Street Survival.

It’s a pretty good piece, and really works to present and create a warrior mindset. And in some ways, it’s a mindset that’s good for life in general; I could see folks wanting to apply it as self-help strategies or ways to succeed in business. It’s all good stuff towards helping you create a solid mindset and attitude.

Thing is, I had this bookmarked for a couple of weeks, intending to eventually write about it. As I reread it this morning, it stood in contrast to something else I wrote about a few days ago, Claude Werner’s piece on “how much training do you need?”.

Tony’s piece sounds like you must dedicate your life to being a warrior, eating, sleeping, breathing, and living 24/7/365 this way in order to have a chance of defending yourself. Claude’s piece says that lots of people defend themselves every day without much of any formal training, and are we Trainers perhaps constructing a bigger boogeyman to justify training?

It’s a bunch to think about… lots swirling in my head regarding both pieces individually and the compare/contrast of them.

I’m not sure the two are in complete opposition to each other; in parts yes, but I think in others they are orthogonal or even complementary.

What do you think?

There are no safe places

/ hsoi

Some guy is going on a robbery spree in South Austin.

AUSTIN (KXAN) – Austin police are looking for a man who has robbed three GameStops and one Subway restaurant — all in the past four days.

The suspect started his robbery spree at a Subway in the 2200 block of W. Ben White Boulevard on Monday.

Over the next few days, he robbed the following GameStops:

Tuesday – GameStop, 4477 South Lamar Boulevard

Wednesday – GameStop, 5601 Brodie Lane #990 (in Sunset Valley)

Thursday – GameStop 13000 N IH 35

In all four cases, the suspect entered the business, showed the cashier a weapon and demanded money. It does not appear that the suspect stole any games or equipment from the GameStop’s.

The suspect is described as:

Hispanic male
Light skinned
Early to mid-20’s
5’8″ in height
160-170 lbs.
Short black hair
Scruffy beard
The suspect was last seen wearing a white t-shirt with lettering on the front and dark jeans.

If you notice the man in the picture, you are asked to call the Robbery tip line at (512) 974-5092, Crime Stoppers at (512) 472-TIPS or text “Tip 103” + your message to CRIMES. You may be eligible for a cash reward of up to $1,000 if your tip leads to an arrest or charges being filed.

The one security camera picture of him? If the time/date is correct, it looks like the Lamar GameStop was robbed at 1:53 PM.

Many people have a belief that crime happens only in particular areas, in particular places, at particular times of day. True, statistically speaking there are areas, places, times of day that are more crime-filled than others. But no place is crime-free. All these places are in good neighborhoods, in “upscale” shopping centers, middle of the day, people around. Ask most people and most would consider it unthinkable for crime to happen here.

But it happens.

I say this not to scare folks, but to give folks reality. No place is truly safe, no place is crime-free. You have to be mindful always.

And if you have any information about these robberies or can identify the criminal, please notify the proper authorities.

One punch too many

/ hsoi / 1 Comment

Via KR Training’s Facebook page I get this story:

Mike Archambault told KMSP-TV that his longtime friend, Brian Vander Lee, was at a restaurant in Andover on Saturday when a stranger at another table asked him to be quiet.

“He did a Superman punch,” Archambault recalled. “Brian went back, feet up in the air, and the guy landed on top of him and his head bounced off the concrete.”

Archambault said the suspected fled the scene and Vander Lee was taken to a nearby hospital where doctors performed emergency surgery for bleeding on his brain.

Full story.

The assailant is a Sergeant on the Minneapolis SWAT team, but that doesn’t really matter other than you’d think a police officer would know better than to assault someone. In the end, he’s still human and who knows what led him to act this way, but we all make mistakes.

The point I wish to make is one I’ve made before about “unarmed”. Just because someone is “unarmed” doesn’t mean they are not dangerous. Just because someone is unarmed doesn’t mean they cannot do serious damage — Brian Lee has had 2 brain surgeries and is on life support. Yes, you can be put in fear of your life by someone that is unarmed.

The presence (or lack of presence) of a weapon is orthogonal to the threat and ability for harm.

Why NOT birdshot

/ hsoi / 4 Comments

So as long as we’re talking shotguns, let me again dispel the “common wisdom” that you should use birdshot.

Here’s a video of protesters in Bahrain getting shot with birdshot. Sorry I can’t embed it since it’s on liveleak. (h/t Cornered Cat)

From the FB posting:

Greg Ellifritz writes: “For everyone who thinks 12 gauge birdshot is a good defensive round…

“Apparently, in Bahrain they use bird shot to disperse crowds like cops here use tear gas. They shot one protestor in the back and later you can see his friends attempting to remove the birdshot. None of it penetrated deeper than 1/2 inch into his body. A painful bunch of little wounds, no doubt, but nothing that will reliably cause the rapid blood loss needed to make the guy stop quickly.

“Caution for the weak-stomachs out there. This one is a little bloody.”

I did find this YouTube video:

which is a different video, but the results are the same. No, it’s not pretty getting shot with birdshot. But it doesn’t really stop much of anything. These guys are in for a lot of medical treatment, it’s going to be sore, it’s going to suck, you’ll have lots of little scars, but the attackers were hardly stopped. In fact, consider that the police are specifically using birdshot to disperse the crowd — that is, they are seeking an annoying but non-lethal solution.

Food for thought.

Some will still find a way to argue and justify their decision to use birdshot. And yes, you may have a legit reason (perhaps you’re dove hunting). But on the whole, birdshot is a poor choice for personal defense. In personal defense a primary goal is to stop the attacker, and birdshot doesn’t stop the attacker.