Statistical filter

People tend to love data, especially if they can use (twist?) it to back up their emotional appeals to further things towards their desired ends.

Hey, we all do it.

The trick for the listener is to sift through everything and truly see the data for what it is, not what someone wants to present.

So to that, well… I’d reblog this if there was a way, but as a posting on Facebook the best I can do is copy/paste it. This was posted by Marc MacYoung here:

In a thread about gun control, the old saws about the victims being children, women and targets of racism came up. Here’s some things to think about…
***

Here are some raw, baseline — and indisputable — facts about violence that spin-doctors tend to deep six. (As they should because they undermine the credibility of the agenda-group’s message.)

An overwhelming majority of violence occurs between people who know each other. (Killing a stranger is exceedingly rare.)

An overwhelming majority of violence is committed by a member of a race on someone of his/her own race. Violence between different races is rare — except robbery.

A large — if not overwhelming — majority of homicide ‘victims’ have criminal records (and are themselves engaged in criminal lifestyles or illegal activities)

An overwhelming majority of homicide perpetrators have criminal records and are actively engaged in criminal lifestyle or illegal activities)

(Note and distinction — a criminal lifestyle means literally crime is their profession. They make their living off it. [e.g., a drug dealer]. This as opposed to someone who is doing something that is illegal [e.g., buying drugs])

Criminal enterprises — especially drug dealing — commonly involve teens and even children (under 12) as part of their ‘crew.’ (In other words, the ‘children’ killed by guns are often gangmembers and drug dealers.)

Men are more likely to be the ~cough cough~ victims of physical violence than women. With the following caveats…

Women are far less likely to become physically violent with a stranger, but are AS likely (although some argue more likely) to become physically violent within family/ relationship.

So where women are as likely to be victims as men are in domestic situation, BUT they are just as likely to be the perpetrators. (I have a saying that before someone can be certified as an expert in the subject of domestic violence they should be required to live in a trailer park for a year.)

Where women ARE the leading ‘victims’ of physical assault is when it comes to rape. But with the current redefinition of rape to include drunk sex — technically speaking men are being raped at a higher rate. (Granted that’s not how it’s being legally interpreted, but drunk and unable to give consent is not sex/gender specific.)

Rape has a legal precedence of being deemed ‘Grievous bodily injury’ — thereby justifying use of lethal force.

Now, these ‘facts’ are available, but you have to dig — I mean REALLY dig.

Because simply stated, a lot of the times questions (that would reveal these) are deliberately not asked in studies/statistics that are going for a specific answer. Answers to support particular agendas. Oddly enough, in studies where they are, the common response to claim the study is biased, unreliable and agenda driven. (How do they manage not to choke on the irony?)

That’s why when people start with the women, children and race aspects of gun control I have to hold up my hand and say “Wait a minute…” because this is the stuff they’re leaving out. Starting with the fact that we have an armed professional criminal class in this country. (The good news is they prefer shooting each other over civilians.)

Spend some time looking up this data at the FBI Uniform Crime Report, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Again, it takes digging and you’ll often find only fragments here and there. But when you put the pieces together, you’ll find that things are WAY different than what the agenda pushers are selling.

UCR
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr
BJS
http://bjs.gov/

So, take it for what you will.

One thing that sprung to my mind after reading Marc’s posting was something Tom Givens trots out.

Tom likes to point out that you’ve got about a 1-in-150 chance of being the victim of a violent crime. Tom uses numbers taken from those above same sources. If you look at Tom’s number through the filter of Marc’s information, the average law-abiding citizen doesn’t have a 1-in-150 — their chances are much less; 1-in-300? 1-in-1000?  1-in-10,000? I can’t say, but certainly not 1-in-150. And if you’re a member of that criminal class, your chances are much higher; 1-in-15 maybe? Again I can’t say.

Granted, Tom is simplifying to make a point, because whatever the actual chances are, it’s still a likely event.

But however you look at it, and whomever is presenting data – even people “on your side” – it’s wise to dig deeper.

KR Training July 2015 Newsletter

The KR Training July 2015 Newsletter is up!

Big news is that we’re running some specials on classes this summer. Not a lot of time, not a lot of money, but ever-so-valuable instruction and reinforcement of fundamental skills – something we all need from time to time. Come on out and see us!

 

2015-07-23 training log

So in the spirit of “having fun again”, I opted to work up to a 1RM on deadlift.

I haven’t deadlifted proper in a while. But I do believe all the stiff-legged deadlifts have been good for me. It felt weird to actually properly (conventional) deadlift today — just haven’t been in that position in a while. But I got back into the groove and things went alright.

Worked up easily, and I told myself if I hit 405 I’d be happy. And I did, and I am. I actually felt I had a little more in me, maybe could have done 425. But I was short on time and well, the 405 was “good enough”. I should be able to have a good short programming cycle based off 405, and the end goal of that is to move 405 better than I moved it today (e.g. faster, better form) and allow myself to work up even more if I want to.

All in all, I’m happy to be in the place I am right now. Sure I’ve lost strength since I started Defattening a year ago, but I’ve also lost a lot of weight too. 🙂 And what I can see is that I’ve gained a reasonable portion of my strength back, and getting back to my prior 1RM’s really won’t take much longer. I mean, heck… 2 days ago I set a lifetime PR on bench, so that’s awesome. My best squat was 325 and I am going to program 315 for this upcoming cycle. Best deadlift is 445 and given what I did today I’m pretty close. It’s like a cycle or two and I’ll be setting new lifetime PR’s AND at a lighter bodyweight too. Win!

Of course, I do have another (long) round of fat-loss to go through over the next 3-4 (or more) months. But at least I feel like if I work it right and well, muscle and strength loss should be minimal and then afterwards I should be able to program well and get things back on track towards my next goal of 3/4/5.

So, I’m happy. All is good.

This is my last gym session for a little while. Taking a no-deload deload, and will hit things again hard in about 10 days.

  • Deadlift
    • 135 x 5
    • 185 x 4
    • 225 x 3
    • 275 x 2
    • 315 x 1
    • 365 x 1
    • 385 x 1
    • 405 x 1
  • BB Curl
    • 70 x 8
    • 70 x 8
    • 70 x 8

Changes

Made some changes to the site today.

The most obvious change is the new look and feel. Or maybe the most obvious change is the removal of ads.

I made these changes for a few reasons.

First, the look and feel (theme) of the site.

I was using a variant of the “Twenty Fourteen” theme, which is a really powerful theme. I chose it when I did because of all themes available at the time it provided the best layout, handled mobile devices well, fair level of customization, and so on. But it seems everyone else thought this as well, because I see so many sites using that theme. Thing is, I never really liked the aesthetics of the theme — I thought it was too narrow for the content — and isn’t content supposed to be king? I always felt the proportions of the theme made sidebars more important than they should be. Plus while I appreciated much about the theme, I never found it totally pleasing to my eye. But at the time it was the best available to suit my needs, so I went with it.

And yes, the simple fact the theme became so prolific… I just hated seeing the theme everywhere.

Digging through WordPress themes this morning and thankfully more and more themes are modern, responsive, and just flat out available. I chose a new theme that’s simpler, cleaner, and hopefully more readable and content-focused.

What I was really hoping for tho?

Less WordAds annoyance.

One thing about the “Twenty Fourteen” theme is it gave a lot of places for ads to show up. I didn’t mind some ads, but over time WordAds has grown more pervasive. And what really broke it for me was the insertion of the ads in the middle of content.

I also have grown tied of some of the ad content. While some ads were certainly fitting for my readership, there’s a lot of click-bait “one weird trick”, “you’ll never believe”, “shocking!”, “hey look! boobs!”, and other just… well… shitty advertising. I hate those sorts of ads. I don’t mind advertising, but I think it should be relevant advertising. And when it gets more and more intrusive, I think it just brings down quality.

So when I switched to this new theme, I did so in part because it didn’t have as many ways to be ad-intrusive. But yet, it still had the ads showing up in the middle of the content.

“Enough is too much” (as the Papa Owl said)

I turned off WordAds. Yeah it was a nice little bit of revenue (and “little bit” is the operative word), but while it started out being reasonable, IMHO the WordAds have become unreasonable. I don’t like the amount of ads being injected into the site, nor do I like the ad content.

And without ads, the site just looks so much better.

We’ll see how this jives out. 🙂

Thank you for your readership.

Edited to Add: Wow. As soon as I posted this, I see at the bottom of the post that ads may still show up. Ha! I forgot that WordPress.com does that, because I’ve been on WordAds for so long. Well, these ads hopefully will be few and far between AND they won’t be annoying ones that show up in the middle of the content.

I do not fault WordPress.com for wanting to recoup costs. I do pay for some features, but their full paid plan (presently $99/year) doesn’t offer me enough advantage. And of course with no ads, how to offset that cost. 😉 So I don’t know. I’ll see how the “occasional ads” wind up being and determine from there what to do.

“The only reason…”

“The only reason for guns is to kill”

Right?

The only reason.

In the July/August 2015 issue of Front Sight magazine, they had an interview with Valerie Levanza.

Valerie is the CEO of a healthcare staffing agency, a mother, an immigrant, and an accomplished shooter in numerous disciplines.

A particular part of her interview stood out to me:

Q: Do you do any hunting?

A: No, I don’t have the heart to shoot anything alive.

She shoots guns, competitively, but doesn’t hunt.

I know a number of accomplished competition shooters, that don’t hunt, nor do they even carry a gun for personal protection. To them, a gun is nothing more than a piece of equipment for their chosen sport, like a racket or a ball.

But you know… the only reason for guns, and that people have guns, is to kill. Right?

 

Just because you can doesn’t mean you should

Yeah I know. You want to open carry because it’s your God-given right or whatever. Or because the legal boundaries have been expanded here in Texas so it’s novel.

Greg Ellifritz posted the following to his Facebook page. What he wrote accompanies a video. I will not repost the video here, but basically it’s surveillance video of 2 police officers in Venezuela, ordering/paying for their lunch. As they do so, a group of men come up behind them — one man sticks his gun to the back of cop 1’s head and shoots him, then turns and shoots the other cop as his cohorts close in.

Why do they do this? It’s obvious in the video: they want the policemen’s guns. They come up, ambush and kill the cops, take their guns, leave.

Greg writes:

Watch this video of two police officers being assassinated. It’s from Venezuela. In that country, gun control makes it impossible for the average citizen to legally own a gun. Criminals there specifically target cops to steal their pistols.

This is the big problem I have with open carry. No one can stay 100% aware of his surroundings at all times. You open carriers don’t think this could happen to you? Wake up. You too could be distracted in a public place ( like this officer paying for his meal in a restaurant) and have a criminal walk up behind you and take the shot.

I have to carry openly as a cop. I would prefer not to, but that isn’t an option. I won’t further enhance my risks for a crime like this by doing it in my off duty hours as well. Be smart. Keep your force options hidden until you need them.

Emphasis added.

And if you think you’re so impervious, that your “head is on a swivel”, that you’re always in Condition Yellow, that your awareness levels are awesome and this will never happen to you, that you’ll be able to take on a determined and well-armed group of men who have zero regard for you and just want what you have… well, I hope you’re right, and I hope your luck never runs out.

Again, I’m all for improving the legal standing of open carry. However from a tactical perspective it’s fairly weak and opens you up to and potentially invites a whole slew of larger issues.

Remember why it is that you carry a gun and try to act humbly and accordingly. If you carry a gun so you can be sure to go home each night to your family, continue to conduct yourself in the manner to best enable that, y’know?

A critique of “good enough”

What is “good enough”?

Usually it means it’s sufficient to get the job done, but doesn’t exceed what’s (minimally) needed. But still, what does that mean?

I just came across an article “What’s Considered ‘Good Enough’ Shooting for a Concealed Carrier?” While I think the article intentions are generally valid, I think the article could be improved.

BTW, if you haven’t read “Minimum Competency”, I suggest you detour from here and give it a read. The rest of this article will have greater meaning if you have a fuller understanding of where I’m coming from.

Minimum Competency

About 2 years ago I wrote a series of articles about “Minimum Competency for Defensive Pistol“. I spent time looking at what happens in self-defense incidents, and from that being able to compile what might be considered minimum competency. It’s essentially the same goal as trying to define what is “good enough”. From that:

It seems when we look at what unfolds in a typical incident and what needs to be done to handle that typical incident, you get:

  • drawing from concealment
    • And perhaps moving on that draw (like a side-step then stop; not shoot-and-move)
  • getting multiple hits
  • in a small area
    • 5″ circle? 6″ circle? 8″ circle? consider human anatomy
  • from close range
    • Within a car length, so say 0-5 yards
  • quickly
    • 3 seconds or less
  • using both hands, or maybe one hand (or the other)

First

The first assertion in the article is to get your concealed carry draw down. Certainly that is important. But the article becomes scattered.

It talks about how targets move and how you don’t want to be standing in one place. But then, when a drill is presented in this section of the article, there’s nothing that addresses movement. Simply discussing side-step on draw is a first step (no pun intended).

The article then presents a drill for concealment draw:

  • Place your hand on your handgun in its holster.
  • Scan your full field of view.
  • Lock on target.
  • Draw your pistol or revolver from its holster.
  • Instinctively put two rounds center mass on the target.
  • Scan your full field of view.
  • Place your handgun back in its concealed carry holster.

I’m trying to understand why you put your hand on your gun, then scan for a target. Generally speaking (both legally and tactically), you  go for your gun once an imminent threat to life has been identified. That likely means the target is already acquired before you put your hand on your gun. So I don’t quite understand this given order of operations.

I’m not sure what “instinctively put two rounds center mass” means.

What is “instinctive”? Humans are not born with any instinct to shoot a gun. Does this mean I should be able to accomplish this feat with my eyes closed? Does this mean I should not use the sights of my gun? Granted if the target is just a couple feet in front of me I can probably get away with a coarse index on the target with just the top of the slide and a general notion of pointing the gun towards the target. But what if the target is 15 yards away? What instinct is to help me there? I’d rather bring the gun up to the eye-target line, with both hands on the gun, and use the sights to some degree (by “some degree” I am acknowledging different types of sight pictures as described by Brian Enos — another topic).

Why 2 rounds? Is it wise to ingrain a habit to always and only shoot twice? What if you only need 1? What if you need 5? Should we be shooting 2 then assessing? Or should we be shooting and assessing and to keep shooting until the threat as stopped?

What is “center mass”? Center mass on me is somewhere around my belly button, if you want to be complete about the typical human body. That is not the best place to shoot something. Instead, one should be shooting where vital organs are, which is well above the center of body mass.

That said, it is good once things are done to scan. Scan for what tho? Don’t just look around, look FOR things. Look to see if there are other attackers. Look to see if there are injured people. Look to see if police or EMS are arriving. Look to see if you are injured. To scan is good, but you need to make the scan meaningful.

And reholstering is also good, but don’t do that until you know the scene is safe. I’d also add that you are unlikely to know how many rounds you fired, so before you reholster I’d reload so your gun is back at full capacity. You do carry a spare magazine, yes?

But here’s another issue with this exercise.

Still, what is “good enough”?

There is some litmus provided:

Shot groups are not nearly as important as developing the mechanics of your reaction.  Your reaction speed is the first priority.  Tight 6″ shot groupings at 5 yards is the second.  Why 6 inches?  If you’re able to place two shots center mass into a target with your concealed carry handgun – while doing all the above things in a timely fashion – you’re doing pretty good.

Very true. Reaction speed matters. And getting the hits all within a 6″ circle is actually quite a good “grouping” for the context. That the author gives a distance for this drill of 5 yards is also a good one, as that’s typically the extent of most self-defense shooting.

But it says “a timely fashion”. What is a timely fashion? Trouble with leaving this open to reader interpretation is they will interpret it in whatever way enables them to succeed. Granted, most people will not say 5 minutes is a timely fashion, but a lot of people will consider 7-10 seconds to be timely enough. Really, it has to be 3 seconds or less. And yes, it needs to be on a timer. That there needs to be a buzzer that sounds at an unknown/random interval so you can only react (you cannot anticipate); that you then draw from concealment, and must get off the hits all within 3 seconds.

It’s important to have some semblance of parameters that actually jive with real world need. Skills that apply to how things really work. Distances. Times, and using timers — because as Tom Givens likes to say, there is a timer in a gunfight and it’s held by the Grim Reaper. And then yes, maybe we can start to say this exercise leads to “good enough”. This drill isn’t bad; it just could use a lot of improvement.

Second

The second exercise involves reloading. Honestly, reloading is not that critical of a skill.

Again, from Tom Givens:

None of ours had to reload and continue shooting.

That doesn’t mean reloading is a skill to ignore, it’s just not as much of a priority.

One thing I do like about the article’s reloading exercise? It has you shoot 2, reload, then shoot 2 more (known as the “4 Aces” drill).

This is a really good drill because not only does it work the reload, but it helps you deal with post-reload shooting, because a common problem is to blow the first shot after the reload.

But still, no standards are given. Check out Ben Stoeger’s take on the drill. And yes… Ben’s times are aggressive, GM-level performance. Still, it gives you something to strive for.

Third

I actually am not sure what the third exercise is supposed to be. It says “move between two targets”. But it never really gives an exercise here.

Am I to be walking between the two targets? i.e. start at position A and move to position B?

Or am I to stay at position A and transition from shooting at target 1 to shooting at target 2?

Or maybe both?

Either way, both are valid things to consider, but for concealed carriers I’d say be more concerned with transitions of shooting 1 target then another target (keep your feet planted while shooting; shoot then move, don’t bother shooting and moving — ask Paul Howe).

Coda

The article isn’t a terrible one, but it’s not the best either. It’s well-intended, but needs refinement.

If we’re going to talk about what is “good enough” then that implies we’re establishing some standard of performance. While some reasonable drills and skills were considered in the article, I didn’t see much that established an objective standard of performance. If you want such a thing, here are some such drills that are better suited towards helping you determine if you are “good enough”:

There’s many more, but those should get you started.

They focus on skills used in combative/defensive pistolcraft. They involve time pressures. They are scored and graded for a performance standard. They allow you to find where you are strong, where you are weak and thus where you need improvement. They allow you a means of tracking that improvement over time. They allow you to be compared to and measured against known objectives and situations, and held to a high standard, so when the flag flies you can proceed with confidence knowing what you can do.

Of course, “good enough” is rarely “sufficient enough”. Always strive to improve, always strive to become better than you were before.

2015-07-20 training log

Man, that 50-rep challenge is painful. 🙂

As I near the end of this cycle and approach what I hope is my last round of cutting to get me down to my desired weight, I’m going for a few things.

First with my current plan, I just want to crank because this is about the extent of it for many months.

Second, I’m trying to figure out my forthcoming plan. More on that in a bit.

So today I just wanted to push…. and 12 reps with 225 felt good. Left 1-2 in the tank, and really just feeling alright here. In a way, I think about wanting to do stuff with less reps and more sets (e.g. instead of 3×8 doing 8×3) to dial in form better. But that will come — eventually.

All in all, just felt good. More reps than last time. I can’t complain.

And yes, that 50-rep challenge is a bitch. 🙂

But I can’t help but think about what my next cycle of programming will be like. What hit me on my walk to the gym? I think I want to go back to 3x/week. Past experience has shown me I do better with 3x/week. I think it’s a combination of factors, such as my age, how much I recover (age, food, sleep, life stress, etc.), and that when I’m in the gym I kinda like doing more volume. Thus 4x/week is just too much for me and over time wears me down. The thing is, I can see from this last cycle that I actually do alright with 4x week because I do see myself progressing week-over-week, which is a good sign! But I also see that I’m feeling burned — I haven’t done my Friday sessions, because I do not feel like going to the gym.

I realize that a lot of what has driven my gym work has been the diet — the whole reason I went 4x/week was at Nick’s recommendation because it’d be a way to get more carbs and have a little more diet sanity than the deprevation I was under at the time. Well, my diet is pretty nice right now, and at the start of this cut it’s still going to be pretty nice. So while I thought this weekend I had finally nailed down my plan, this morning I took a step back and am going to revisit it. The thing that I need to determine is: do I want 3x/week because truly that’s better for me? or because I’m just fried right now? Hard to say, but I’ll mull it over. I mean, is the fact I’ve been skipping a session due to listening to my body a tell-tale sign that my body wants me to go back to 3x/week? Thing is, I could see going 3x/week for now, then when the diet gets to a particular point, go 4x/week again. That’s resonating with me pretty strongly right now, so who knows… if I can’t figure it out, I may just go 3x and see what happens.

That all said, another thing is Nick has urged me to always keep working somehow… take a deload when needed. Thing is, sometimes I do well with a “no-deload deload” — to do “jack shit”, truly. Just take a vacation from the gym, don’t think about it, don’t go, sleep in, rest up. Yeah, maybe stay active and walk or do yard work or whatever — don’t become a couch slug. But I think the fact that basically in a year I haven’t taken ANY break from the gym is probably catching up to me. I’m thinking next week will be a “no-deload deload”, doing some active things, but basically avoiding the gym and enjoying the refresh.

Based on Paul Carter’s “Guaranteed Muscle Mass” article.

  • Squat
    • bar x 5
    • bar x 5
    • 135 x 5
    • 165 x 4
    • 195 x 3
    • 245 x 2
    • 275 x 1
    • 225 x 12 (AMRAP)
    • 225 x 6 (50%)
  • Stiff Legged Deadlift
    • 145 x 5
    • 185 x 4
    • 255 x 3 (whoops… should have been 225, but I did 255)
    • 275 x 2
    • 315 x 1
    • 255 x 12 (AMRAP)
  • Split Squats
    • BW x 50-rep challenge