crime

Is your Austin neighborhood a crime spot?

/ hsoi / 1 Comment

krimelabb is a fantastic website for Austin residents.

I can’t find this posted off their main website, but I did see they posted this to their Facebook page: Neighborhood Crime Analyst.

Plug in the name of your neighborhood and see what’s going on there.

More interesting? the People/Places search.

Put in your zip code. See who the frequent offenders/arrestees are. See the mug shots of the top 20 offenders in your zip. See where the crime hotspots are. See business complaints.

I looked at the hotspots for my area. No surprise really that along I-35 was the highest rate of offense (DWI’s, crashes, thefts at the shopping centers, etc.). There’s an Austin Police Department substation in my area, and they were up there too; I’m sure that’s a matter of accounting. Of course, the local HEB grocery store had a lot too, and you might be shocked to see how much shoplifting and theft goes on in a day (and note, this only lists the ones that get caught).

What got me was the other high crime hotspots were apartment complexes. That’s not too surprising because you have a higher concentration of people at one address. I’d be curious to see the “hotspot” data without the apartment complexes tho, to look for areas that might be more crime-oriented because of location or other reason than just a lot of people living at the same fundamental address.

Anyways, check it out and see what you can see.

Is it worth dying for?

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

WASHINGTON, Pa. — A Pennsylvania bank robber fatally shot a supermarket customer who ran after him and tried to stop his getaway car, police said.

Full story here.

In short, man sees a dude acting strange, shortly thereafter hears a scream from inside the bank and the dude running out. Man gives chase, tries to stop the dude, and gets killed for his efforts.

I cannot fault the man for seeing wrong and trying to do something about it. I’m sure he didn’t think, he just reacted. His intentions were good and honorable.

Unfortunately, his good intentions got him killed.

I’m not saying you should do such things, nor am I saying you shouldn’t.

What I am saying is, you need to answer this question for yourself: what is worth dying for?

You need to answer this question NOW, not later. When the fur flies, you will not have time to think, only do. You need to know where your line is, what you are willing to die for, and what you are unwilling to die for. You might find your line is in a different place than you thought it was. There is no shame in that, because it’s better to be honest with yourself. Who knows… maybe your life circumstance changed. I know if I was single and childless my line would be in a different place than it is with me being married with children. Whatever your reasons are, don’t be ashamed and don’t worry what others might think, especially if it might be some ego “less manly” type of thing. Those calling you wussy aren’t going to support your children when you’re dead. They’re not going to comfort your grieving widow. They’re not going to pay your medical bills when you’re in the hospital. This is your life, not theirs, and you don’t answer to them. Know what you are willing to and unwilling to die for, and answer only to yourself and your god.

Just be sure you figure out that answer now, when it’s nice to know, before you need to know.

 

Overcoming distance

/ hsoi / 4 Comments

Watch the video in this news article. I wish I could embed the video, but the link is all I have. (h/t KR Training)

In short, 2 guys trying to rob a store. They failed because the shopkeeper and employee fought back. But in watching the video, one thing really stood out to me.

Fencing.

The shopkeeper was trying to fend off the robbers by using a baseball bat. Not a horrible choice, but it was generally ineffective. It didn’t really deter the robbers until their second attempt, when the guy with the gun jumped over the counter (probably to get a key or some such to unlock the front door) and then the owner could get some better hits in. All this “fencing” did was kinda keep the robber at “arm & bat distance”. The swings didn’t connect, nor was there anything behind the swings (if they did land, they wouldn’t have done anything). The robber kept pressing his attack, trying to grab the bat or at least swat it away, and the “fencing” really wasn’t doing much.

Here’s the thing.

The bat didn’t do much because the gunman was out of (effective) range of the weapon.

Of course, the gunman could have easily overcome this by shooting, but he didn’t. From how he was shooting and behaving, I reckon he can’t shoot worth a damn and figured he had to be up close in order to try to hit anything. So, that works in YOUR favor because yeah, most bad guys with guns can’t shoot (but don’t count on that since some studies and surveys have shown that many criminals actually practice more than cops).

That’s a strong advantage of a gun: the ability to overcome distance.

Many people advocate other weapons: knives, baseball bats, tasers, pepper spray, as some means of effective self defense. But the reality is, do you really want to get up close to the bad guy? I mean, if this guy would only shoot at close distance, since he obviously had no reserved about grabbing people by the throat… do you REALLY want to get up close with this guy? Because up close is the only way for those other tools to be effective.

But a gun? It traverses distance. Distance is your friend in self-defense encounters: creating as much distance as you can works in your favor. I mean, isn’t that what fleeing is about? creating a LOT of distance between you and your attacker? So in a case like this? Yeah, a gun would have been more effective than a baseball bat.

The store owner is quite fortunate, and I’m glad he fared as well as he did. The main reason for that was his choice to not be a victim and to fight back. Next time tho, choose a more effective weapon.

1 in 1,000,000? Not so much.

/ hsoi / 5 Comments

Everyone wants data. So, here’s some data and perspective that derives from that data.

We all go through life dreaming of winning the lottery. We all go through life hoping to never be the victim of a violent crime.

We like to think being the victim of a violent crime is “a one in a million” chance of happening. Now, I don’t think anyone actually believes it is truly 1:1,000,000 chance; rather, it’s being used as an expression to say it’s a very remote possibility it will ever happen to me.

Let’s look at numbers.

The FBI maintains this nifty database called the Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics. As of this writing, the latest data is from 2010. Let’s see what the UCR reports regarding violent crime (murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault) across the US in 2010.

I generated the table and saved it as a screenshot because it was the easiest way to get it here into the post. Let’s extract and look at the summary numbers.

In 2010, there were 308 million people living in the US, and there were 1.25 million violent crimes reported.

So what was the crime rate? There were 403.6 violent crimes per 100,000 people. Or about 1 in 247.

Really though, it’s lower. Consider there’s a number of folks in the population that are extremely unlikely to be either the perpetrator or victim of violence, like infants, the infirm, etc.. So really, chances are what? 1 in 200? Maybe even less? Really hard to say. Plus, this is only reported violent crime. There are crimes that go unreported (especially rape), so you can be sure the actual number of violent crimes committed is much higher. So simple math says if we’re calculating with less population and more crime incidents, the ratio gets smaller. We’ll have to base upon 1:247 since that’s the best number we can calculate, but keep in mind the ratio is likely smaller.

Let’s put this in perspective. I found this article from 2007’s NY Times that contained numerous ways to die and the chances of dying from them. The data apparently comes from the National Safety Council and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  • Heart disease – 1 in 5
  • Cancer – 1 in 7
  • Stroke – 1 in 24
  • Car accident – 1 in 84
  • Accidental Poisoning – 1 in 193
  • Falls – 1 in 218
  • Drowning – 1 in 1,134
  • Air/space accident – 1 in 5,051
  • Sun/Heat exposure – 1 in 13,729
  • Lightning – 1 in 79,746
  • Fireworks – 1 in 340,733
  • and my favorite —- worldwide, 62 people died from shark attacks, but 150 died from falling coconuts.

This infographic from PopSci.com gives some other interesting chances:

  • Chance of getting cancer – 1 in 2 (the above seems to be dying from, vs. this just getting it)
  • Being selected on The Price is Right – 1 in 36 (but you have to be in the studio audience)
  • IRS audit – 1 in 175
  • Getting injured and dying in the next year – 1 in 1820
  • Going blind after laser eye surgery – 1 in 85,714
  • Dying in an airplane accident – 1 in 354,319
  • Being struck by lightning – 1 in 700,00 (again, this is struck, the above is dying from)
  • Winning $1000 in McDonald’s Monopoly game – 1 in 36,950,005
  • Winning Megabucks Slot Machine Jackpot – 1 in 49,836,032
  • Winning Mega Millions – 1 in 135,145,920

Given this data, it seems we should primarily care about our general well-being: eat right, exercise, mind your sun exposure, etc.. We should also keep our taxes in order.

When you put the UCR number in there, it’s really not too remote a possibility to be a victim of a violent crime.

Think about this.

More people on a daily and weekly basis put more effort into playing the lottery than they do keeping themselves healthy and well. Whether it’s eating right and exercising, or it’s having a ready-means of defending themselves against violent crime, people put far more effort into something that has almost no chance of happening than effort into something quite likely to happen.

Does that make sense?

We could also make the case for something like abolishing the TSA, where we put 2-tons of effort and billions of dollars into an unlikely event, but the .gov works hard at keeping the citizenry from being able to address things they are far more likely to die from on a daily basis! But that’s another topic for another time.

Certainly make your own value judgment here about what’s important to you and how you wish to utilize this data. I just think it’s important to look at the general chances of various things happening, and take it as some perspective and reality. You’re far more likely to be a victim of violent crime than you are to win the lottery; it’s far from a “one in a million” chance. I mean, winning the lottery technically would make you the statistical anomaly, and how cool would it be to beat the odds, right? Well, even if being the victim of a violent crime was a “one in a million” chance, you still accepted that it might happen, and you have to admit it would really suck to be the one that beat the odds.

Mayor Leffingwell – known by the company you keep?

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

[Austin’s] Mayor Lee Leffingwell was one of the first in the state to join the Mayors Against Illegal Guns coalition.

Full story.

They say you are known by the company you keep.

Members of MAIG have a pretty good track record of corruption, committing crimes, being indicted, being arrested.

Mayor Leffingwell, what’s a reasonable person to think about you?

 

Leveling the playing field

/ hsoi / 5 Comments

Now, 15 years later, virtually all law enforcement agencies and officers are either issued AR-15 style rifles, or have them accessible. But, that is the police. In the context of self defense, why do armed citizens need AR-15 style weapons? Because, the armed citizen faces the VERY SAME criminals that police face. The only difference is that police, because they are more often called TO the incident, face these criminals more regularly. Understand, though, criminals do not prey on police, but instead, they victimize the public.

If the armed citizen wants to have a fighting chance against criminals who are armed with high capacity rifles and pistols, they also need effective weaponry. Just like the police did back in the 1990s and today.

Marty Hayes, President of the Armed Citizens Legal Defense Network, responds to “why anyone would need one of those”.

In reading Marty’s response, it made one thing clear: it’s about “leveling the playing field”.

I’ve often said that a firearm is a force equalizer. A petite woman vs. a 300# beast of a man? Force disparity. Old man vs. young thug? Force disparity? Fit able-bodied person vs. small gang? Force disparity. So much of self-defense is about overcoming that disparity. I mean, when some martial art talks about how it’s techniques allow that weak tiny woman to overcome and cripple a 300# man, the underlying message is that martial art allows you to overcome force disparity, and thus it’s a good thing. Rape prevention techniques talk about using tasers, pepper spray, walking in groups – all means of overcoming force disparity. It’s all about reducing the disparity, or better, becoming the one with the force advantage so perhaps no one will mess with you in the first place. However, the reality is while these measures are all useful and do overcome force disparity, a firearm is a better tool for overcoming force disparity. It’s like any technological advancement; it’s why we blog and tweet and email, and why the US Postal Service is shriveling up.

We seem to put great stock in “leveling the playing field”. Why do we drug test in sports? Because we don’t want someone to gain “unfair advantage”. Why is there large political movement to change this country’s legal and economic structure? To stop few people from gaining unfair advantage and control over the rest of us. We want the field level, or whether people want to admit it or not, if the field is going to be tilted they want it tilted in their favor. So why should self-defense be any different? Why should we put ourselves at a disadvantage or force others to be at a disadvantage? That’s akin to telling the petite woman to not fight back against her rapist. To use force of law to deny her effective tools? That’s akin to tying her hands behind her back. Doesn’t it sound stupid to suggest “Hey ladies, the most effective way to keep from being raped is to lie there and take it! Just give him what he wants!”? So why do you suggest solutions that effectively create this situation?

There are numerous reasons why someone would “need one of those”, be it an AR-15, a modern semi-automatic firearm (rifle or pistol or shotgun), a firearm that could hold more bullets than you deem to be “necessary”. Fundamentally it comes down to overcoming force disparity and ensuring that “level playing field”. It’s about allowing the weak to stand strong. And yes, YOU are weak. There is always someone stronger than you: physically, mentally, economically, politically. And if not today, tomorrow you may be weaker (if nothing else, someday you will be old and frail). Are you willing to resign yourself and your fellow man to being crushed? Or would you prefer to stand strong?

Lessons to learn

/ hsoi

Police say that they have arrested two women accused of committing nearly two dozen residential burglaries in the Austin area since the summer, according to an arrest affidavit.

Cristal Gomez, 18, and Kayla Wright, 19 have been charged with burglary after police said they committed at least four burglaries in one day in October. They are among at least 20 burglaries police say the two Austin women have committed, according to the affidavit.

Full Story (h/t Tim). Do read the whole story; it’s not long, but is full of important details.

So what can we learn here:

  • Two women. In fact, two teenagers.
    • Be mindful of your assumptions about who commits crimes. As well, consider your response to those crimes — do you have a different reaction because they are women? Because they are young?
      • Reactions aren’t just “how I would defend myself”. It’s even your own political and personal feelings. I mean, 10 seconds ago when you read the above words, what reaction did you have, and was any of it based upon gender or age?
      • Then the question is, should gender and/or age affect or change our reactions, in a case like this?
  • Serial criminals. This wasn’t their first rodeo.
    • In fact, look at the charges levied against them, including assault.
      • Knowing at least one of them was violent, does that change your above reactions and responses?
  • All crimes listed happened on a weekday (October 9 was a Tuesday) during “work day” hours.
    • They aren’t looking for a fight, just a quick score. Note they took TV’s, cameras, jewelry – things easy to sell to make a buck.
    • If someone was home, they fled. No resistance, no desire for fight. Of course, that’s why the break-ins were at the time/day they were – best chances of no one being home, nor witnesses being around.
    • It appears the break-ins were easy scores – removing a window-unit air conditioner, going through doors and windows. No mention made of efforts to secure the houses, useful dogs, or the like, but the lack of such information in the article doesn’t mean it wasn’t there.

There’s much to learn here, especially perhaps about our biases.

More homeless camps in South Austin

/ hsoi

Looks like more homeless camps are popping up here in South Austin:

AUSTIN — The Slaughter and Manchaca intersection in South Austin is surrounded by stores, restaurants, apartments, and now a homeless camp.
The camp popped up several weeks ago, but because it’s on private property Austin police say there is nothing they can do about it for the time being.

If you are familiar with the area, you can watch the video and you’ll easily identify where this is happening.

APD’s issue with this is a sound one. The trash is a huge problem. And the fires are too. We’ve never left drought, everything is very dry, and that field is a huge tinderbox. I don’t know if you know how quickly a fire can spread and rage out of control, so you’ll have to trust me when I say that a fire in that field would very easily become a massive problem and puts hundreds and maybe thousands of families at stake (given the number of apartment complexes right around there).

The mention of the aggressiveness? Quite true. Since I live in this area, I’ve seen these people day in and day out, as they go about their business. I’ve seen how they interact with people, often picking on women with children — that is, vulnerable, scared, difficult to defend themselves, easy to intimidate. I’ve watched them raise their voices, get angry, get mean, harass. Since there’s a grocery store nearby, they frequent that parking lot. I’ve also seen them in the store itself, and yes the loss prevention folk follow them around because they are known shoplifters (I’ve heard the employees speak about this issue).

I’m sympathetic to the problem of homelessness, but I’m not sympathetic to theft, intimidation, and risking the lives of so many.

Armed robbery – just up the street

/ hsoi / 1 Comment

Driving to church this morning, I see the neighborhood McDonald’s taped off with Austin Police everywhere.

Looks like an armed robbery:

Posted on January 20, 2013 at 10:12 AM

Police are searching for two men, one of them armed, in connection with a robbery at the McDonald’s on Slaughter Lane and Manchaca Road.

The robbery happened around 7 a.m. Sunday morning.

The two men reportedly walked in the restaurant demanding money, threatning someone with a handgun.

Police say there were security cameras in the restaurant.

The investigation is still underway.

Another local station has more details, including a picture and description:

First man’s description:

White
Thin build
Late teens to early 20s
5’7” – 5’10” in height
Long sideburns along jaw
He was last seen wearing a white t-shirt and blue jeans.
Second man’s description:

Hispanic
Thin build
Late teens to early 20s
5’7” – 5’10” in height

Updated: The above “more details” with descriptions is from a prior robbery, last summer.

Update #2: Additional story from KVUE which doesn’t offer much more in the way of useful details, but updates that it was around 6 AM, a shot was fired but no one hit (unclear if it was a shot fired at the employee and missed, or just a “scare you” type of shot into the ceiling). So…. still not much to go on. They keep saying they have video, so I hope they will release more concrete details like descriptions and pictures.

It can happen anywhere, at any time. I live in a “safe” neighborhood… but no neighborhood is immune.

Keep your eyes open. Be mindful and aware.