crime

Violence is still golden

/ hsoi

Some years ago I came across an essay by Jack Donovan called “Violence is Golden”.

Recently, Scott Faith revisited Jack’s essay.

Violence should not be a first resort, but sometimes it is the only resort. I think deep down everyone knows this, but there are those that want to deny it. Or at least, they cannot see themselves performing violence, consider it icky, and thus others shouldn’t partake in it either. But somehow they know that violence is sometimes necessary – without it, laws have no ground, no meaning., and society has no structure. And I think everyone has a line, it’s just a question of finding it. I hear many women that go on about how they could never hurt someone else, but are very willing to get “momma bear” protective if someone tries to hurt their children. There you go, there’s your line. Let’s look at forcible rape (forcible, as opposed to statutory); this is not a time for negotiation, this is a time for violent response because it’s demonstrated that rape victims who fight back fare far better than those who do not. Is there anyone not willing to draw a line here?

Have you ever trained a dog? When training a dog, you have to think like a dog. Dogs don’t understand human, they understand dog. For example, petting a dog is an act of reinforcement. If the dog is doing something and you pet it, the dog says “hey, whatever I’m doing is good, keep doing it”. But to a human, petting can be a comforting behavior. So for example, if your dog is afraid of thunderstorms, many people will pet their dog in an attempt to soothe and comfort the dog. This is bad; that’s human-think, not dog-think. What happens is the petting reinforces to the dog that being afraid of thunderstorms is what to do, and that’s not the behavior we want. To successfully work with a dog, you have to think and speak and act dog. You have to speak their language.

And so it goes with 2-legged predators as well. There are some people out there that only understand the language of violence. They will not listen to your begging, but they will listen to a gun muzzle pointed at them. Which speaks their language? Which will they understand? You cannot apply your standards, your morals, your behaviors and modes of thinking to all people because all people do not and will not think and behave like you – if they did, they wouldn’t be violating you right now, would they? Sometimes you have to speak their language, whether you like it or not. As Faith writes:

Violence should not be, and usually isn’t, the method of first resort in man’s dealings with his fellow man. But you’ve got to talk to people on a level that they understand; sometimes the only language they understand is that of violence. This is especially true when it comes to halting violence after it has already begun. After all, when people cry out for someone to “Do something!” about places like Syria and Iraq they don’t mean send in the State Department or the United Nations; in situations where “reason” fails, you don’t send memos you send the Marines.

What really touched me about Faith’s article was his addressing of the “Coexist” bumper sticker. Every time I see one (usually on a Prius), all I can think to myself is “Great! But I’m not the one you need to be proselytizing to; tell that to the people who are trying to kill me.” Or how wonderful it is to preach that from the safety of our country, behind the laws (force, violence) and law enforcement (police, military — you know, people with guns willing to perform violence by proxy for you). Faith writes:

Coexistence is a wonderful thing, as long as everyone is an equally-committed partner in the process. But if one player in the coexistence game decides to not go along with the program, then you could “coexist” yourself right out of existence. It’s the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma; at every level of human interaction, everyone is better off with cooperation. But the incentives to cheat are such that the fear of defection of others creates incentives to be the first to leave the collective. When it comes to pacifism, anyone declining to at least maintain the capability of violence will be at a distinct disadvantage, and the first to resort to violence will likely be the one left standing at the end of any conflict between them. This is why programs like “Global Zero” will never work; it overlooks a fundamental aspect of human nature. After all, in a society of the blind the one-eyed man in king; and in a society that has beaten all swords into plowshares, everything belongs to the man who kept his sword whole… unless another man with a sword stops him first. Si vis pacem, para violentus.

Faith concludes:

So we need not like violence, but we need to acknowledge the role it plays in securing our lives, liberty, property, and way of life. More than that; we need to embrace it, and stand eternally vigilant to carry it out either individually or collectively if (when) the need arises. There will always be someone who cheats, who defects, who simply doesn’t get with the “ideal world” program. If we don’t prepare for that, we are at the mercy of those who do. And on that note, I think that the best way to end this article is the same way it began, with a quote from Violence is Golden: “It’s time to quit worrying and learn to love the battle axe. History teaches us that if we don’t, someone else will.”

He (and Donovan) are right: we need not like violence, but we need to acknowledge the role it plays. Too often people want to just look at violence as a bad thing and believe that doing away with all violence is the solution and thus the goal to which we must strive. But not everyone will share your lofty goals, and there will be those that see your lofty goals as your weakness and use it against you. And then what will you do? As Donovan wrote:

However, the willful submission of many inevitably creates a vulnerability waiting to be exploited by any one person who shrugs off social and ethical norms. If every man lays down his arms and refuses to pick them up, the first man to pick them up can do whatever he wants. Peace can only be maintained without violence so long as everyone sticks to the bargain, and to maintain peace every single person in every successive generation — even after war is long forgotten — must continue to agree to remain peaceful. Forever and ever. No delinquent or upstart may ever ask, “Or Else What?,” because in a truly non-violent society, the best available answer is “Or else we won’t think you’re a very nice person and we’re not going to share with you.” Our troublemaker is free to reply, “I don’t care. I’ll take what I want.”

Violence is the final answer to the question, “Or else what?”

We cannot have a civilized society without violence. Violence is neither good nor bad; like all things, it’s how people use it that determine it’s merit. Striving to rid the world of violence is laudable, but naive, because how else can you enforce your mandate (as ironic as that would be)? Instead, acknowledge the role violence plays in creating a civilized society, and work to enable good people with the means by which to help maintain that vein of civilization.

She avoided being mugged – Here’s what you can learn from her experience

/ hsoi

Lynn Givens seems to have avoided being mugged, either for her electronics or her prescription drugs (or perhaps both). Lynn shared her experience on Facebook, both recounting the event and numerous learnings points. She’s fine and safe, and we’re thankful for her sharing so we can all learn.

What follows is a copy/paste of Lynn’s posting, which she has encouraged us to share.

I have been asked to repost this AAR to include the lessons I learned. I have done so. Share if you would like to.

Just The Facts Please:

Today, around 12:40 pm, I left Tom at home while I ventured out to Walmart. My intent was to pick up two prescriptions and look at their IPod selection, as mine had died.

I parked halfway out in the parking lot; did not want a dent in the ZBULLET; and entered the store near the pharmacy area. I went directly to the pharmacy area and waited in line. As I picked up my two prescriptions, the cashier informed me that I would need to show my driver’s license for ID, because my script was a controlled substance. I gave her my license and she pulled out a 3 ring binder and logged in my name, script number, DL and date. This transaction was done right there at the check-out register. I was going to pay for it later after I was done shopping.
I then headed back to electronics taking a very convoluted path, browsing at merchandise. In the midway, a young man came up and while standing within about 2 feet of me, started texting. As I tried to walk by him, he engaged me in conversation by saying to me, “that was my mom, she was just checking on me again.” Being polite, I said “that’s nice of her”. I then continued onto electronics.
When I got back there, he was waiting there and kept looking in my direction. I continued to look for the Apple Products and eventually asked a salesgirl for assistance. She showed me where they were, I said thank you, and continued to look at the selection. He walks over and asks me if I ever had an IPod before. I told him yes, mine was broken. He then just loomed around in the area watching me intently. If I moved, he moved. I even left the area, he moved away but showed up again where I was. I then went to the salesgirl and asked to check if they had a particular one, she then left to get it out of some far away place that took about 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the thug watched me and if I moved, he was there again. I finally, took my prescriptions out of my cart, went to another department, struck up a conversation so as to not alarm the sales women. In a discrete manner, I asked for them to call security, that a man has been stalking me in the store for the last 30 minutes and it has become unnerving. She called for security and seconds later, the stalker was within 3 yards of me again. Fortunately, I had worn my sunglasses to the store, so as I was intently watching him over the top of the glasses, he thought I was unaware of him. If I lifted my head up and looked in his direction, he would disappear for a moment behind a display.

Finally a sales person arrived with my IPod. I told him what was going on and that security never showed up. I described the thug, took 3 pictures of him while pretending to text on my phone. The sales person saw him and got all upset. I told him to relax and just ring me up.

He rang up my scripts and IPod and I began to head for front exit by pharmacy. It occurred to me, that there may be some assistants with him. As I reached the front exit, a young man came walking very fast paced, texting someone, and headed to the back of the store. I had already asked the front store clerk to walk me to my car, he said certainly. I gave him the description of the thug and he was headed back in to get a manager.

Arrived home on orange red.

He either wanted the prescriptions or the electronics, or both.
Many lessons here. Most important one for me; having to give DL to pick up controlled substance. Anyone can watch from afar and know what you got. Makes you a huge target. Lesson learned.

HUGE RED FLAG FOR THUGS TO TAKE PRESCRIPTIONS FROM YOUR CART OR GET YOU IN PARKING LOT.

• I was carrying my S&W M&P 9C in a belly band with extra mags and OC.

I owe my seeing the signs early to Tom Givens, Craig Douglas and William Aprill. Each one has taught me something that gave me the ability to see the signs early.

FIRST, he kept showing up close to me from out of nowhere

SECOND, overly friendly, trying to engage me to get my guard down

THIRD, he displayed a lot of grooming behavior, stroking chin, crossing arms, rubbing forehead, pacing, constantly texting as if communicating with a partner

FOURTH, he had on shorts, tank top, flip flops, it was quite cool in the store, but his shirt was soaked under his armpits

FIFTH, he was walking around with nothing in his hands to buy and never stayed at any display to look at something, just followed me and kept disappearing behind displays when he thought I noticed him

SIXTH, don’t count on anyone but yourself and what is physically on your body to handle the situation; I had already moved my purse to my left shoulder and had access to my OC

SEVEN, THERE WAS NO SECURITY THERE TODAY WHEN THIS HAPPENED, NOR DID A MANAGER COME TO MY AID

EIGHT, I knew there could be more than one person and not to go to my car alone

NINE, as leaving the store, I was watching for a accomplice, and wouldn’t you know, as I left, a young man entered the store walking very fast, headed in his direction texting–coincidence–maybe, maybe not

TEN, alertness and awareness are key. I had electricity going all through my body as this unfolded.

ELEVEN, don’t ignore what your body is telling you. Use that sixth sense.

TWELVE, be aware when you are picking up a script that must be signed for. I may as well been walking around with a sign on me that said, get your drugs here.

That’s all for now.
July 5 at 9:13pm • Unlike • 3
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Lynn Givens Thanks everyone. I post this for others to read and learn. I have had unusual life experiences, this is fourth time in being able to navigate through possible disaster. I hope my experiences will help others to do the same.
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Lynn Givens I think I am done.

More lessons as I ponder today’s encounter

THIRTEEN, I used the plastic packaging of merchandise to see down the isle where he was avoiding being seen, but he could not see me. I was trying to keep distance between us.

FOURTEEN, I was making a plan of what I was going to do. It did include just leaving the store and giving my basket to the door greeter on the way out.
July 5 at 9:42pm • Like • 2
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FIFTEEN, ALWAYS PAY FOR SCRIPTS RIGHT AWAY. This way you can take your scripts and leave.
July 5 at 9:43pm • Like • 2
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Lynn Givens I think I am done.

Wow. A lot to digest.

In fact, because it’s a lot to digest, I recommend you come back and read this a few times. You just read it, come back tomorrow and read it again. Do the same again in the future. You will read, you will ponder, you will digest, and you’ll gain more from revisiting it (no, this isn’t about getting hits to my blog… save it off to your own records to read offline and carry with you, I don’t care — it’s about being able to really learn from this experience, because there’s a great deal in here to learn).

There are a few things I want to point out.

Point 7 – there was no security, and no one came to her aid. Your personal safety is your responsibility.

Points 6, 14 – she was planning, always planning. In fact, I’d say this includes Point 0: already having a gun and OC spray on her person — that was pre-planning. Heck, going even further, getting some training and acknowledging events like this can and will happen to you so you can be prepared and handle them when they unfold; pre-planning.

Be honest. If this happened to you, how would you have taken it? If some guy was being so nice to you, would it have set off any alarm bells? And even if it did, would you have acted on them? or tried to shrug them off (a lot of people do this; see Lynn’s Point 11).

Going back to Point 14, notice Lynn’s willingness to leave everything. So you don’t get your medicine, and it’s going to be a huge hassle to get it again (it’s a controlled substance, going to probably be difficult to get it “reissued”). Whatever. Totally willing to abandon all her shopping, her basket full of stuff, whatever, because her personal safety is more important.

Points… well, just about every other point. The common thread here is awareness. She paid attention and was constantly vigilant.  She used tricks to keep an eye on him (Point 13). She observed out of place behavior (Points 2, 3, 4, 5). She made a fair assumption there would be more than 1 thug (Points 3, 8, 9).

But here’s the bigger point that stands out.

None of this was solved with a gun, or OC spray, or any other sort of weapon or “hard skill”.

It was all solved by being alert, aware, and having prior acknowledgement that bad things can happen to you so you must be prepared ahead of time to handle them. Lynn gives credit to Tom Givens, Craig Douglas (SouthNarc), and William Aprill for giving her the skills she needed to get through that encounter. Yes it was good she had her gun, yes it was good she had OC spray (and it seems she was looking to use the OC as her first line of defense, see Point 6). But the key thing that kept her safe was being able to manage these unknown contacts.

It’s great you want to get your concealed handgun license, but I see so many people that think once they get that, they’re done and good. No, a concealed handgun license is merely your entry ticket into a larger world of personal protection. It’s the minimum entry fee, folks. Yes, you should work on hard skills to become proficient with it, but it’s more important to get these “soft skills”. You should seek out both types of instruction and training.

It’s great you want to carry pepper spray. But have you ever used it? Some people think that buying the canister and putting it on their keychain is done and good to go. But is it really? Are you really able to handle yourself? Will you be able to catch the cues and avoid the situation entirely (the best defense, the art of fighting without fighting… whatever you want to call it), or will it all happen “out of nowhere” and be over before your mind can unfreeze itself and you begin to react?

There’s much to learn from Lynn’s experience, and I’d like to express my gratitude to her for sharing. There’s much to learn here, but you have to swallow your pride and be honest with yourself — your life is worth it.

krimelabb – heat maps

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

krimelabb, a fantastic website for analyzing crime data in the City of Austin, has added “heat maps” to their data visualization tools.

Jack Darby, the man behind krimelabb, shared a few tricks with me about using the website.

One of the best tricks? Use “99999” as the zip code — that gives you city-wide data. The thing with the heat maps is they are relative to their data set, so when you view a heat map for a small area with little crime, the maps “look bad” because relative to that data set, an incident of 1 is pretty hot. So the heat maps work better in things like viewing crime city-wide — helps put things in better perspective.

So let’s see here…

Heat map for aggravated assault in Austin, 2014 to date

Imagine that — downtown (6th Street), I-35 and Rundberg, Riverside and Pleasant Valley.

Heat map for homicide in Austin, 2014 to date.

Same.

Heat map for rape in Austin, 2014 to date.

Same places, adding in the University of Texas area.

Anyways… you get the idea.

Remember John Farnam’s maxim: “Don’t go to stupid places; don’t associate with stupid people; don’t do stupid things. We will add to that, be in bed by 10 o’clock.”

You can spend hours getting lost in the krimelabb data and visualization tools. And while you do, you’ll see how much Farnam’s maxim holds true — both for people that get in trouble (because they don’t follow his maxim), and for how to avoid trouble (by following his maxim).

You’ll also see that while there are worse parts of town than others, you’ll discover that no part of town is immune, no time of day is immune. Crime happens everywhere, any time. Just because you weren’t a direct victim today, just because you didn’t hear about it on the news or read it in your news feed, doesn’t mean it’s not happening around you — look at the data.

Deconstructing the numbers

/ hsoi

Okay bad news here folks. More than guns, the media causes mass shootings.

From a pure numbers standpoint, mass shootings are statistically meaningless. If you look at the FBI Uniform Crime Report there were 12,765 non-negligent homicides (manslaughters/murders, non-LEOs and accidental). Of them ALL kinds of firearms were used in 8,855.

Now if you want to bump the numbers to scare people about guns you add in suicides. Ohhh big scary of the 38,364 suicides in 2012, 19,000 plus were done by firearms.
http://www.cdc.gov/violencepr…/pdf/Suicide_DataSheet-a.pdf

Now, depending on who you ask CDC or other sources, there are between 487,000 suicide attempts (self-inflicted injuries) yet the same source implies there are 959,100 attempts. Another source I read says hospitals treat over 2,000,000 suicide attempts a year. I give you these numbers because whether you vote for 487,000, 959,100 or two million suicide attempts you really have to dig in the CDC numbers to find that in the same year there were only 169 suicide attempts with guns. So it’s pretty obvious that people who are serious about ending their lives use guns. Oddly enough, statistically the most reliable way to kill yourself is by jumping in front of a train, which has a 0% survival rate. Thing is if someone is that dedicated to taking their life, they’re going to find a way, guns or no. So adding in suicides to bump number of ‘gun deaths’ is a red herring.

Okay so back to homicides. Here’s the booger depending on the locale, the numbers of those killed have criminal records upwards to 90%. Allowing for ‘known’ perpetrators the average again comes out to about 95% having criminal records. In short, an overwhelming number of shootings are between those involved in the drug trade or gangs. This especially in the big cities — where most homicides happen. The only way to hide these numbers (and arguably this inconvenient truth) is to include Wyoming and Kansas rednecks shooting each other over messing with their wives. That statistically reduces the professional criminal element common to most homicides.

Now not to sound callous, but innocent people who are gunned down in ‘mass shootings’ seldom top 50 of the yearly homicide rate (12,756 in 2012). But they do make for great media coverage and fear.

Now, growing in Los Angeles in the 1970s, the first time I was involved in a drive by attempt was around 1974 (I was on my way to buy comic books). The shooter missed and I went along my way. I had several classmates who were shot or shot at in this manner. The key point is these incidents were never reported by the media. It was considered criminals trying to kill criminals

In the ’80s and early ’90s the media started covering drive bys. And they increased. To the point that homicides reached an all time high in the US. Gang members would rush home to see how many stations covered their drive bys. The publicity translated into fame.And gang related drive bys went wild.

That’s also an issue when it comes to spree shooters. Although statistically meaningless in how many bodies they produce, the media coverage inspires people looking for fame.

– Marc MacYoung

Your door isn’t soundproof

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

Did you know the front door to your house isn’t soundproof?

It’s true!

You can talk to the person on the other side of the door just fine – and you never have to open the door.

Why might you want to keep your door closed when speaking with someone on the other side of it?

Maybe you don’t know who the person is on the other side of the door, they don’t have Girl Scout Cookies, and you don’t know what their intent is. Yes, chances are fair it’s just some solicitor wanting to sell you something or get your signature on a petition. But how can you be sure?

Why open the door?

First, it’s probably hotter or colder out there than it is in your climate-controlled house, so why let the A/C or heat out and the hot or cold in? Second, there’s bugs out there — I don’t like flies and mosquitos in my house.

But I also don’t like cockroaches, and I’m talking the 2-legged kind.

It’s not uncommon for doors to be opened, and assailants to then barrel through into the home.

Or maybe they don’t do anything… other than get a good look inside your home. What valuables do you have? Where are things laid out? Who might be in the home (that would be a problem)? Are there any dogs? Alarm systems? Then they come back later, maybe when you’re not home, maybe with more friends.

Why invite this trouble?

Yes, it can come off a bit rude to yell “Who is it?” through your door and carry on a conversation through a wall. So what? Which is of greater concern to you? your safety or your manners and how some stranger perceives you?

There will come a time when you must open the door. Until that time, leave it closed (and locked!) and talk through your door.

(for more information on home invasions, check the May 2014 issue of the Rangemaster newsletter)

So apparently violence CAN be the answer

/ hsoi / 6 Comments

In a 2005 report commissioned by [National Institute of Justice, a U.S. Department of Justice agency], researchers examined a variety of sexual assaults and other physical assaults against women. The study did not focus specifically on college students. The researchers found that potential rape victims who resisted their attackers physically and verbally significantly reduced the probability that a rape would be completed and did not significantly increase the risk of serious injury.

Most self-protective actions significantly reduce the risk that a rape will be completed. In particular, certain actions reduce the risk of rape more than 80 percent compared to nonresistance. The most effective actions, according to victims, are attacking or struggling against their attacker, running away, and verbally warning the attacker.

In assaults against women, most self-protective tactics reduced the risk of injury compared to nonresistance. According to the researchers, the only self-protective tactics that appear to increase the risk of injury significantly were those that are ambiguous and not forceful. These included stalling, cooperating and screaming from pain or fear.

A separate study found that even when a rape was completed, women who used some form of resistance had better mental health outcomes than those who did not resist.

From a 2005 report, that Certain Self-Defense Actions Can Decrease Risk. (h/t Michael Z. Williamson)

So sure. It’s important to teach people not to commit crimes; to not violate the property, rights, and dignity of others. It’s also important to realize that while civilized society has worked towards this end for thousands of years, there are still those who chose to deviate and not do what you or society-at-large desires and deems appropriate and acceptable. We haven’t yet been able to eliminate from society bad people doing bad things.

Given these bad people still exist and likely will continue to exist for some time (if thousands of years of history are any indication), it’s prudent you take additional steps towards your own self-protection and self-preservation.

And yes, if the above report is any fair indication (along with thousands of years of recorded history), sometimes violence is the most effective solution.

Remember, violence isn’t bad, it just is what it is. While often violence is used – and most often reported – in a negative manner, certainly violence can be and is used in a positive manner. Do not overlook the fact that a woman fighting back against her rapist, that she is using violence as a tool to preserve her dignity and life. And apparently, a violent response is demonstrated to be the most effective means of avoiding assault, sexual assault, and rape.

FBI 2013 Preliminary Uniform Crime Report – Don’t believe the hype

/ hsoi / 2 Comments

The Uniform Crime Reporting program (run by the FBI) is a collection of crime data from across the nation. There’s no policy here, no conclusions, no assessments, just data.

While the most useful report is the full annual report, mid-way through the year the UCR issues a preliminary report on the year so far. The Preliminary Semiannual Uniform  Crime Report, January – June 2013 has been published.

It’s not as detailed, nor as full of good broken-down statistics – you have to wait for the full annual report. But it’s still a good way to catch a glimpse of crime in the nation, especially violent crime and property crime.

Here’s the summary:

Preliminary figures indicate that, as a whole, law enforcement agencies throughout the nation reported a decrease of 5.4 percent in the number of violent crimes brought to their attention for the first 6 months of 2013 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2012. The violent crime category includes murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The number of property crimes in the United States from January to June of 2013 decreased 5.4 percent when compared with data for the same time period in 2012. Property crimes include burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Arson is also a property crime, but data for arson are not included in property crime totals. Figures for 2013 indicate that arson decreased 15.6 percent when compared to 2012 figures from the same time period.

Emphasis added.

Crime is going down. At least, according to data reported to the UCR.

It varies of course. Certain crimes changed more than others, certain regions of the USA had different amounts. Some places went up (e.g. Austin went down, Houston stayed about the same, Dallas went up). But on the whole and generally speaking, crime is down, according to this data.

While most of this data only gives percentages and only looks at 1st half 2012 vs. 1st half 2013, you can still see that despite the slight uptick in crime in 2012, the overall trend remains downward.

Or so it’s reported.

Here’s the thing. We can only look at this data as the data given. Is it Truth? Maybe, maybe not, but hopefully it is. I say this because it’s not unheard of for departments to mis-report (under or over), change classifications, or other such “accounting tricks” to help make statistics look right. There might be politics involved, budgets to consider, and who knows what other factors (e.g. consider how many crimes are never reported at all; very common in rape situations). So, we just have to say “this set of data, for whatever this set of data is worth, says this”.

However, I would like to think that any issues of “accounting tricks” or other matters that might skew data ultimately is a wash over time, or at least is constant enough year over year that while we can debate specific numbers, the trends will remain solid.

And so yes, I would like to believe this data: that crime is going down across the USA.

Why is it going down is of course going to be the subject of much debate. UCR gives no guidance here (which it shouldn’t). Everyone with an agenda will claim their pet politics are why things are down. I don’t think there’s any one single reason, and likely everyone’s pet politics probably had some sort of hand in the matter.

The main take-home?

The media loves to report on tragedy: murders, violence, mass shootings, corruption, scandal. Headlines, news feeds… it’s filled with reports of crime and violence. It gives you the perception that violent crime is on the rise.

Don’t believe the hype.

Homicide Trends

/ hsoi

The following information comes from Tom Givens. It’s a copy/paste (with minor edits only for formatting/posting). Take it for what it’s worth.

Homicide Trends

The US Department of Justice gathers and reports information on a number of crime classifications from all over the United States. They recently released a huge amount of data on homicides occurring during the time period 1976-2005. This is a 29 year period, so there was a lot of data to examine. Here are a few tidbits from that information.

Males are almost four times as likely to be murdered as females. Males are also far more likely to be the offender.

Among male victims, they were killed by:

  • Spouse, ex-spouse, or girlfriend 5%
  • Other family member 6.8%
  • Acquaintance/known person 35.3%
  • Stanger or unknown killer 52.9%

Among female victims, they were killed by:

  • Spouse, ex-spouse, boyfriend 30%
  • Other family member 11.8%
  • Acquaintance/ known person 21.8%
  • Stranger/unknown 36.3%

Cases involving:

  • male offender/ male victim 65.3%
  • male offender/female victim 22.7%
  • female offender/male victim 9.6%
  • female offender/female victim 2.4%

Age of victims:

  • Under 18 9.8%
  • 18-34 52.7%
  • 35-49 22.8%
  • 50+ 14.7%

Circumstances of murder, 2005 only:

  • Felony murder* 2,432 15%
  • Argument 4,787
  • Gang related 955 5.7%
  • Other ** 2,223
  • Unknown ** 6,295

Felony murder is a murder committed during the commission of some other felony, such as armed robbery, car-jacking, rape, etc. “Other” and “Unknown” accounted for 51% of all homicides. “Other”, “Unknown” and “Felony Murder” together comprised 66% (2 out of 3) of these homicides. These are the ones we go armed to prevent.

Please note that gang related murders were the smallest percentage. The common notion that most murders are gang members killing each other is nonsense.

A couple of other quick facts:
Each year about 4,400 unidentified human bodies are recovered in the US. About 1,000 remain unidentified after one year. At any given time, there are approximately 100,000 active missing person cases in the US. Many of these are soon found, as they are voluntary disappearances due to marital discord, domestic violence, credit issues, etc. However, several thousand each year disappear without a trace and are never seen again. Obviously, these are undetected homicides that add to the data detailed above.

Other Violent Crime
These figures are also from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, a branch of the US Department of Justice. These deal specifically with 2006.

Total Violent Crime Incidents for 2006 = 5,685,620 (1 for every 54 people)

A common fallacy is that this violent crime takes place in the wee hours, after midnight. Wrong!

  • 6 am-6 pm 52.4%
  • 6 pm-midnight 32.8%
  • midnight-6 am 10.9%

Robbery = 645,950 with injury to the victim= 232,380

Rape = 255,630 Victim’s advocacy groups believe about 1 rape out of every 6 is reported to the police. Do the math.

Aggravated Assault = 1,209,730 (an assault involving a deadly weapon and/or serious bodily injury to the victim) Many Aggravated Assault victims are permanently disabled, have to have multiple surgeries, or are permanently disfigured, they just didn’t die and become homicides.

One simple step to deter crime – lock your doors

/ hsoi

I’ve kept track of reports of the thefts from cars in the city where I work (an upper-class suburb with around 35,000 residents) for the last 30 days. While I earlier referred to them as “car break-ins” that is truly a mischaracterization. Here’s how the numbers work out:

Number of vehicles entered- 24

Unlocked vehicles- 20

Locked vehicles- 3

Unknown or unreported status- 1

More than 83% of the vehicles with items stolen were unlocked! In only three cases did thieves actually break a window to steal something. In each of those cases, the item(s) stolen were expensive and clearly within view from the outside of the vehicle. You can safely assume that if there is nothing visible to steal in your car, thieves won’t break windows just to check. On the other hand, if you leave your doors unlocked, thieves will open the door and see what they can find. As the title of the article says: Lock your damn doors! If you don’t want your crap stolen, keep your doors locked and valuables out of sight.

From Greg Ellifritz

I’ve written about this before, about how to keep your car safe.

Locking your doors is a primary deterrent. Second is to keep things out of sight, or better, not in the car at all. Don’t even keep cigarettes and gum, as that may well be desirable (yes, I had a neighbor whose unlocked car was rummaged through, and the only thing taken was their pack of gum).

I have had mixed feelings about locking car doors due to an old friend who worked in the legal system for some time. He never locked his car doors, but also kept the car empty from all things (only thing in the car was the car itself). From his experience, it was better to keep the doors unlocked and avoid the smashed window. As well, if they really want the car itself, it doesn’t matter because if they want something that big that badly, they’ll get it regardless. I see his logic and where it comes from, but still — I’m a door locker and car emptier.

It holds for houses too:

The same advice also applies to your house as well. We had at least four burglaries last month where thieves entered through an unlocked door. The standard M.O. for these burglars is to find a house that appears unoccupied. They’ll knock on the door and if no one answers, they will walk around the house looking for an unlocked entrance. If they find a door unlocked, they go inside.

The thieves go straight to the master bedroom and steal jewelry and all the small electronics they can gather on the way. They are in and out of the house in only a few minutes.

I’ve seen countless surveillance videos to back this up. BTW, ever have someone knock on your door and when you answered gave a strange response? You may have been cased. I had this in my younger days: someone knocked, I answered and they said their friend needed a glass of water. I gave them one, then when I went to go look they were no where to be found. A teachable moment for myself.

If you have an alarm on the house? I sometimes question the utility of it for the above reason: by the time they are in and out it’s only a few minutes and police will not respond in time. Nevertheless, I have an alarm system — and use it — because I think every layer of deterrent is useful and adds up towards making my car, my home less of a target. Locking doors and windows, well-lit exterior, having and using an alarm system, attentive neighbors, dogs, etc.. Note that most burglars aren’t undertaking a major heist: they just want a quick and easy score. The harder I can be to score against, the better. One just cannot have a false sense of invulnerability, no matter how thick one’s layers may be.

This is especially true regarding dogs.

I have a big dog. She’s a livestock guardian dog, so by nature she’s extremely protective. She’s certainly another layer to our home and family security system. But reading this gave me pause:

The thieves saw the dogs and concocted a plan. They entered the (unlocked) detached garage. One of them grabbed a yard rake and the other grabbed a scrap piece of lumber. They used the rake and lumber to drive the dogs back into an area where they could close a pet gate and isolate them to a small area of the house. With the dogs walled off, the criminals went straight for the bedroom and stole the jewelry. They left the rake and the piece of lumber in the house entryway.

I don’t know what sort of dogs, or even if the dogs’ temperament played a possible role here (e.g. a friendly lab vs. a protective pit). Still, it shows that a determined burglar (or group of) can get what they want. Nothing is bulletproof, so the more layers you can have, the better.

Bottom line: lock your doors. It’s a simple step, and will prevent a lot of problems.

What are YOU doing about it?

/ hsoi / 1 Comment

I’m a part of a neighborhood website, which covers many neighborhoods in Austin and even has participation by Austin Police Department and Travis County Sheriff’s office.

One of the Travis County Constables posted a general “community service” message. In response, someone posted about a car break-in in their neighborhood, and from the sounds of it, it’s not an uncommon occurrence in their neighborhood. What got me was the closing sentence of their post:

We live here and we want to feel safe.

The tone of the posting was saying there’s a problem, we don’t feel safe, we want to feel safe, and what are YOU going to do about it?

While to a degree that’s understandable, I have issue with a few things.

First, you have to realize that your feelings don’t matter. What matters is reality.  Instead of living in a bubble that expects the world to be this ideal thing, accept the world is far from your ideal. That may not be the happiest way to look at things, but when you look at realities instead of falsehoods, you can accomplish more.

Second, why are you putting your safety on others? Why are others responsible for your safety? Why aren’t you responsible for your own safety? Why aren’t you rallying your neighbors to get more active and do something about the level of safety and crime in your neighborhood? Start a neighborhood watch. Talk with each other. Keep a watchful eye out for yourself and each other, to look for odd things going on. That doesn’t mean you have to get vigilante, but it’s about having awareness and being pro-active about your own well-being instead of expecting others to provide it.

This isn’t to say you shouldn’t request help from local law enforcement. That’s part of their job, it’s part of what your tax dollars pay for. But realize there are only so many police in town and they cannot be everywhere. But you and your neighbors are there in your neighborhood, and you can and should take your own steps to help improve your conditions instead of expecting, waiting for, and being let-down by putting your safety and well-being in the hands of others.

And then, perhaps you’ll be able to feel safer, because you’ll know something is actively being done to actually make your neighborhood safer and have less crime. And you’ll probably even feel better about it, because that improvement is coming by your own hands.